Dry start, gradual warm-up

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ROCKFORD (WREX) – If you were a fan of yesterday’s weather, you’ll enjoy the forecast for today.

With high pressure in control at the surface, another tranquil day of weather is likely.  A few clouds are scattered across Northern Illinois this morning, but the same cannot be said for Southern Illinois.  Showers and even a few thunderstorms have developed along a warm front, but those will stay away from the Stateline.

Despite rain the south and isolated showers to the north, high pressure at the surface will keep things quiet for midweek.

Under partly cloudy skies, afternoon high temperatures should rise into the 70’s.  Average highs for mid-May are in the low-70’s, so we’ll be near-average if not a notch or two above.

The dry weather comes to an end as we head into Thursday.  This evening will feature an increase in cloud cover, but even the overnight hours remain dry.  Rain chances steadily increase once we get past sunrise.

At this time, models have a line of storms pushing through Central and Southern Wisconsin through the morning hours Thursday.  The biggest threat with this will be strong wind gusts, but some larger hail is also possible.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of Northern Illinois in a “marginal” risk for severe storms.  Keep in mind, that is a 1 on a scale of 1-to-5.

Strong thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow. Flash flooding and strong winds are the biggest threats, but hail looks to also be possible.

As the day progresses, temperatures will warm into the upper-70’s to near-80.  Along with warmer temperatures, the dew point will be on the rise.  It will feel more like summer and less like spring tomorrow afternoon.

While the atmosphere may get “worked over” with morning storms, most models agree that enough time will pass and enough instability will be present to allow for another round of thunderstorms tomorrow evening as a low-level jet brings in higher dew points.  The threats remain the same: damaging winds and large hail.  While not completely out of the woods in regards to the tornado threat, it does look like that chance is very low.

Friday morning could feature some lingering showers or thunderstorms, but unfortunately the chance for rain doesn’t leave the area.  The opening day of City Market could force many to seek shelter under the pavilion as showers are possible at times through Friday afternoon.

A frontal boundary stalls in the area of Northern Illinois, keeping shower chances in the forecast for the opening day of Rockford’s City Market.

Not only will Friday have continued rain chances, but it also looks drastically cooler than what was expected earlier in the week.  High temperatures will likely remain in the 60’s as a cool breeze from the east keeps the Stateline socked into mostly cloudy skies and showery conditions.

The stalled frontal boundary provides the region with more rain and thunderstorm chances through the weekend, with highs moderating back into the 70’s.

Justin Ballard

Justin Ballard

Morning Meteorologist

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Alex Kirchner is the 13 Weather Authority's chief meteorologist at 5, 6 and 10 p.m. 

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Justin Ballard

Justin Ballard is the meteorologist for 13 News Today and 13 News at Noon.

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