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Building humidity could give way to weekend showers, storms

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ROCKFORD (WREX) — The fall-like temperatures of late are about to be replaced by summertime heat and mugginess. With added humidity, storm chances could fire during the upcoming weekend.

Dry for now, slowly turning muggy:

Another morning is underway where temperatures have dropped into the 50s. Enjoy the crisp, almost fall-like start, because changes move into the region this weekend. Highs to end the work week climb into the lower-to-middle-80s as dew point temperatures slowly begin to inch into the "humid" category.

Heat indices won't be an issue Friday, but they slowly climb by Sunday. In fact, some spots could see heat index values reach into the upper 90s.

Mostly sunny skies early on give way to intervals of clouds and sunshine for the afternoon. While clouds may take over the sky at times, dry conditions persist through Friday. If you have any outdoor plans this afternoon or evening, weather shouldn't slow you down.

Weekend storm chances:

A complex of thunderstorms exist over Eastern South Dakota early Friday morning. While this system is hundreds of miles from the Stateline, it could bring impacts into the region this weekend.

High-resolution model guidance brings outflow boundaries from that complex into the region by late Saturday morning. Outflow boundaries are the rain-cooled air that push out of thunderstorms. They can linger for several hours, spreading out from the parent group of thunderstorms. In a sense, they act as small-scale cold fronts, allowing for lift and additional thunderstorm development.

It looks as though Saturday is going to feature the best chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially earlier in the day. There is going to be plenty of dry time, as skies turn partly cloudy later in the day. Highs Saturday approach the middle 80s, with heat indices nearing 90°.

Dew points steadily climb this weekend, with the return to mugginess lasting just a few days.

If you think Saturday is warm, Sunday looks even hotter with forecast highs near 90°. Heat index values approach the middle and upper 90s by late in the weekend. Models keep most of the region dry Sunday aside from a widely scattered pop-up shower or thunderstorm.

Severe weather chances appear minimal, however heavy rain and some gusty winds could accompany thunderstorms. Precipitable water, or the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, approach 2" this weekend.

Justin Ballard

Justin Ballard joined 13 WREX as the weekday morning meteorologist. He’s a proud graduate of UNC-Charlotte and happy to call Rockford home.

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