ROCKFORD (WREX) — Temperatures this work week remain near average, but small shower and thunderstorm chances remain in place.
Somewhat unsettled conditions:
Tuesday continues the sunny skies, especially early in the day. If you're heading to work early in the day, the rain gear can be left at home. Sunny skies and barely a cloud in the sky persist through the morning, but a few cumulus clouds bubble up during the afternoon.
A quick-moving disturbance is pushing through Minnesota early Tuesday morning, but most models bring this system through central Wisconsin. While the bulk of activity looks to remain locked up north of the Stateline, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out late in the day.
The best chance for any of this making it into the region comes in after sunset. High-resolution model guidance suggest this activity moves in around midnight, as a nearly stationary boundary slowly sags south. This could keep isolated shower and storm chances around overnight Tuesday into the predawn hours of Wednesday.
Chances shift south:
As the nearly-stationary boundary pushes south Wednesday, the threat for showers and storms also gets shunted south of Rockford. Areas along and south of I-88 stand the best chance of seeing a stray shower or storm through the afternoon Wednesday. Don't let the slight chance for rain deter you from getting outside, though. In spite of rain and storm chances, there is going to be quite a number of dry hours both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
With the slow-moving boundary pushing through Thursday, another isolated shower or storm chance is possible. Most of the region remains drier than average, as no widespread rain or thunderstorm activity looks likely. As crops are coming into maturity, a widespread and steady rain is needed. Looking at the long-range outlook through the first full week of August, slightly drier conditions appear likely to stick around.
Staying cooler, comfortable:
The next seven days show no signs of stopping the cooler, more seasonable weather. It's a good thing, because so far Rockford has seen 17 days with highs at or above 90°.
Temperatures Tuesday are likely to be the warmest of the next seven, with highs near 85° in the forecast. Temperatures drop into the lower 80s and even upper 70s by early next week, as dew points remain seasonably comfortable.