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Dwindling storm chances as temperatures slowly climb through the week

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ROCKFORD (WREX) — A shift in the pattern is going to effectively shut off precipitation chances through week's end. While rain and storms become less common, the heat is just getting started.

Early week storm chances:

Monday brought heavy rainfall to portions of the Stateline late in the day. Storms developed and dumped between 2" and 3" of rainfall across northern Winnebago and Boone Counties, prompting flash flood warnings in those locations.

Storms are going to be widely scattered Tuesday afternoon thanks to the nearby proximity to a stationary boundary.

Drier weather has taken over for Tuesday morning, but another round of late-day storms are possible. Storms are going to be more widely scattered to isolated, meaning your garden might need to be watered by late in the day. Any thunderstorms that do manage to develop are going to feature heavy rainfall and even some gusty winds.

Once the sun sets on another day, the threat for storms quickly diminishes. This leaves behind a dry overnight period, despite the muggy and warm conditions.

High pressure strengthens:

The stationary front that has been responsible for afternoon showers and storms is forecast to get shunted across downstate Illinois. This is going to effectively drop rain chances from scattered to isolated before eventually shutting off precipitation entirely.

So far this year, there have been six 90°+ days. We'll add a few more to that list over the next seven days.

As high pressure strengthens, expect temperatures to climb slowly into the late week. Highs climb into the lower and possibly even middle 90s by the early part of the weekend with little cooling relief from a shower or storm.

The stationary front that brings shower and storm chances early in the week is forecast to push south by the weekend, taking storm chances with it.

July 4th outlook:

Wednesday marks the first day of July and it's going to feel like it. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with humidity to boot. The 4th of July is right around the corner and it looks like heat and humidity are here to stay.

Temperatures for Saturday are forecast to climb into the lower 90s, but that could be a bit underdone. Some model guidance places high temperatures closer to the middle 90s. Regardless of where high temperatures land, heat index values are going to be pretty excessive, with heat indices nearing the century mark.

Justin Ballard

Justin Ballard joined 13 WREX as the weekday morning meteorologist. He’s a proud graduate of UNC-Charlotte and happy to call Rockford home.

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