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Summer-like conditions this holiday weekend bring the threat of strong storms

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ROCKFORD (WREX) — We get out of our prolonged stretch of below average weather this weekend, but the increase in heat and humidity sets us up for showers and possibly strong to severe storms.

Saturday storms:

Rainy weather holds off until Saturday afternoon, so the start of the holiday weekend won't be a washout from the get-go. The weather gets a little warmer than earlier in the week, with temperatures rising to the upper 70's by the afternoon.

Watch for storms and the threat of severe weather after 4 pm.

After 4 pm, a disturbance coming in from Iowa sparks up a line of showers and storms. Depending on the timing, these may come through during the heat of the day, with good wind shear in play. This means the environment may be prime for severe storms. All severe storm threats are in play, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible.

There's a slight risk for flash flooding across the Stateline, but storms may move fast enough to keep this threat low.

Increasing humidity may mean a risk for flash flooding, but since the storms may be moving along at a decent speed, the risk remains low.

Severe weather is possible Saturday evening, but risks remain slight.

This isn't a guarantee for severe weather, however. If the weather stays cloudy, or the timing of the storms' arrival is off, severe weather isn't likely. This is why the risk remains slight, for now. Stay on your toes tomorrow, and head indoors immediately if you hear thunder or get a severe weather alert.

The weather dries out quickly Saturday night, and we may stay quiet for a while after that.

Sunday and Monday showers:

Sunday may end up dry, then rain may fall on-and-off Sunday.

We may see more dry time over the remainder of the holiday weekend, but don't plan on completely dry conditions just yet.

Sunday is trending drier, however. There's a slight chance we'll still see some rain, mainly during the afternoon, but most models are keeping Sunday pretty quiet. The summer-like weather is in full effect by this point. The air feels a little muggy (especially since we aren't used to that part of summer yet), and temperatures leap to the middle 80's. This will be the first time since October 1st that we see 80 degree temperatures in Rockford. Keep an eye on the radar heading into Sunday evening and night, as slight chances for rain remain in the forecast.

Memorial Day has a higher chance for rain. Showers look hit-or-miss, but plan on seeing at least some rain scattered throughout the day. Temperatures stay in the low 80's.

Rainy next week:

After seeing a little more dry time Sunday and Monday, the rest of the week may go in the opposite direction.

A front may stall out somewhere in Illinois (the long range models remain murky, for now). Anytime a front stalls, round after round of rain is able to form.

This could produce daily chances for rain and heftier rain totals next week. We'll keep a close eye on the heavy rain potential and update accordingly. Temperatures stay right around 80 degrees each day next week, but that depends on how cloudy and rainy the weather is on a particular day.

Alex Kirchner

Alex Kirchner is the Chief Meteorologist at 13 WREX. He joined the 13 Weather Authority in 2014 and brings over a decade of forecasting experience to the weather department. Alex earned Certified Broadcast Meteorologist recognition from the American Meteorological Society, and his work at WREX earned him a Best TV Weathercaster award from the Illinois Broadcasters Association and a regional Emmy.

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